I am a quantitative ecologist with an interest in modelling biogeographic patterns of species and communities across space and time. I use multilevel Bayesian models, machine learning, and mechanistic simulations, with a particular interest in addressing the role that stochasticity and uncertainty play in our ability to predict community dynamics and responses to anthropogenic influences. My past work has included insects, mammals, and invasive plants, often in montane environments.
At SAMS, my research includes modelling sea lice dynamics, kelp population dynamics, and potential effects of deep sea mining on benthic ecosystems, as well as forecasting risk of harmful algal blooms and associated toxins.
Current projects
SMARTEX: A NERC funded project running 2023-25 - simulations of mining impacts
E(tive) Lice: A BBSRC funded project running 2024-26 - sea lice monitoring and modelling in dynamic coastal systems
COAST-SCAPES: An EU Horizon funded project running 2025-29 - modelling ecosystem impacts of climate change
OCCAM: An EU Horizon funded project running 2025-29 - geographic transfer of HAB and sea lice modelling systems
ACCLIMATISE: An SEUPT funded EU project running 2025-29 - HAB and phytoplankton
Past highlight projects
Off Aqua: Sea lice disperal modelling and HAB forecasting. Funded by BBSRC and NERC. 2021-2023
Kelper: Population modelling for sustainable kelp harvesting in the UK, Chile and Peru. Funded by NERC. 2021-23
PRIMROSE: Funded by EU Interreg. 2023
Lecturing
BSc Marine Science programme: 2nd year Data Science - Module leader
BSc Marine Science programme: 4th year Marine Modelling - Populations and ecosystems lectures and practicals
MSc ACES programme: Key skills in algal biotechnology - Statistics and experimental design lectures and practicals
Szewczyk TM, D Aleynik, K Davidson. 2025. Ensemble models improve near-term forecasts of harmful algal bloom and biotoxin risk. Harmful Algae, 142, Article 102781. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2024.102781
Szewczyk TM, MT Burrows, T Adams, DA Smale, PJ Moore. 2024. Mechanistic simulations of kelp populations in a dynamic landscape of light, temperature, and winter storms. Ecological Modelling, 488, Article 110590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110590
Szewczyk TM, Morro B, Díaz-Gil C, Gillibrand PA, Hardwick JP, Davidson K, Aleynik D, Rey Planellas S (2023) Interactive effects of multiple stressors with significant wave height exposure on farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) welfare along an inshore-offshore gradient. Aquaculture 579: 740184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aquaculture.2023.740184
Vera LM, G de Alba, S Santos, TM Szewczyk, SA Mackenzie, FG Sanchez-Vazquez, & S Rey Planellas. 2023. Circadian rhythm of preferred temperature in fish: Behavioural thermoregulation linked to daily photocycles in zebrafish and Nile tilapia. Journal of Thermal Biology 113: 103544. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103544
Szewczyk TM, MJ Ducey, V Pasquarella, JM Allen. 2021. Extending coverage and thematic resolution of compositional land cover maps in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Ecological Applications. Link, GitHub repo.
McCain, CM, S King, TM Szewczyk. 2021. Unusually large upward shifts in cold-adapted, montane mammals as temperature warms. Ecology. Link, GitHub repo.
Szewczyk TM, T Lee, MJ Ducey, ME Aiello-Lammens, H Bibaud, JM Allen. 2019. Local management in a regional context: Simulations with process-based species distribution models. Ecological Modelling. Link, GitHub repo.
Szewczyk TM & CM McCain. 2019. Disentangling elevational richness: A multi-scale hierarchical Bayesian occupancy model of Colorado ant communities. Ecography 42(5): 977–988. Link.
McCain CM, S King, TM Szewczyk, J Beck. 2018. Small mammal species richness is directly linked to regional productivity, but decoupled from food resources, abundance, or habitat complexity. Journal of Biogeography 45(11): 2533-2545. Link.
Lydakis A, JM Allen, M Petrik, TM Szewczyk. 2018. Computing robust strategies for managing invasive plants. International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence and the European Conference on Artificial Intelligence. Link.
McCain CM, S King, TM Szewczyk, J Beck. 2018. Small mammal species richness is directly linked to regional productivity, but decoupled from food resources, abundance, or habitat complexity. Journal of Biogeography 45(11): 2533-2545. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13432
McCain CM, TM Szewczyk, K Bracy Knight. 2016. Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses. Global Change Biology 22(6): 2081-2093. Link.
Szewczyk TM & CM McCain. 2016. A systematic review of global drivers of ant elevational diversity. PLOS One 11(5): e0155404. Link.
Employment history
Since 2025 Lecturer in Ecological Modelling, SAMS
2021-2025 Ecological Modeller, SAMS
2019-2021 Postdoctoral Researcher. University of Lausanne
2017-2019 Postdoctoral Researcher. University of New Hampshire
Qualifications
2017 PhD Ecology & Evolutionary Biology. University of Colorado, Boulder
2009 BS Biological Sciences. University of Notre Dames